Neglected news, missing data(births)

 

Recently, there was a private message saying that the amount of hepatitis B vaccine used by newborns in The first half of the year decreased by 40%, but I haven't found the source of the data yet.

When a similar question was asked on Zhihu in 2019, there were very few official data available online:

At that time, Chongqing was considered a "fish that escaped the net", but now I can download the website of its Health Commission and update the statistics of June, and it has no longer disclosed the number of births:

For some reason, another meaningful piece of data has "disappeared."

I've always thought that these are very important data for the average person:

For example, the Gini coefficient, which tells you the results of the gap between the rich and the poor, let's think about the causes of it;

For example, housing inventory data, it can tell you the current supply and demand of the real situation, let the housing price return to normal scenario logic;

Better CPI data, for example, will tell you what is wrong with existing policies and may change them in time.

And real population data, which can predict the future of the economy and allow ordinary people to prepare for a rainy day.

In the previous article, "The Game of the Lying", I cited a paper by pboc, "A Study on The Calculation of China's Potential Output and Growth Momentum during the 14th Five-year Period". I made a table of its calculation with the number of labor forces:

China's labor force began turning in 2013, and by last year it had fallen by about 30 million.

During this period, The GDP growth rate gradually decreased from 7.8 percent to 6 percent (not considering the special circumstances of last year).

In some ways, it was to hedge against this downward trend that the famous "destocking by raising price"was created.

As a result, household debt soared 218% over the same period, leading to further excess physical capacity and a slump in consumption.

This may be why officials have suddenly started to pay great attention to demographics and birth rates.

If you follow this logic, an important piece of news has been overlooked recently. The working-age population will continue to shrink by 35 million between 2021 and 2025, compared with 30 million in the previous eight years, vice-Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Said at a press conference of The State Council at the beginning of this year.

In other words, the economic downturn is still not the end of L.

Without a more stimulative fiscal and monetary package, GDP will most likely fall to the 4-4.5 range by 2025.

Even so, it is hard to be optimistic about the next five years of labor force data (i.e. babies born after 2010).

Based on the population born in 1998 falling below 20 million, it took 21 years to fall below 15 million (2019:14.65 million). Last year, the official line was 12 million, and this year, it may test the edge of 10 million.

This time, it took only two years to reduce by five million.

In order to fill this labor (output) gap, in the past five years, we have learned new words 996, 007, behind the forced extension of individual working hours. (Fewer people, but more tired)

And in the next five years, delayed retirement will be introduced.

Perhaps there will be longer delays in the future.

Can we counter the cycle by destocking with higher prices?

This is to fry tenant, gambler bet cognition.

I must admit, if there is still room for resident debt, this chamber pot will still be used.

History has repeatedly shown that whoever it is is rather short-sighted.

So the question is whether there is room for household debt.

And whether it is acceptable that household debt is used as a tool to project further deterioration into the demographic data.

See "House Price Arbitrage, Cap Recalculation and A-Share Trend"

And stop hiding data.

Only by facing up to problems can we solve them.

This is more useful than a monthly subsidy of several hundred yuan